Unintended effects of urbanization in China: Land use spillovers and soil carbon loss

This paper uses a national-level geographic information system database on land use, weather conditions, land quality, soil organic carbon (SOC), topographic features, and economic variables to analyze the major drivers of land use change and the resulting impact on soil carbon storage in China. The framework developed in this study includes two main components. One is a spatial panel multinomial logit land use model that takes into account the spatial and temporal dependence of land use choices explicitly. The other is a statistical causal evaluation model that estimates the effect of land use change on SOC density. Results indicate that local economic growth, as measured by county-level gross domestic product, was a major cause of urban development and grassland conversions. Rapid expansion of road networks, promoted by massive public investment, increased the conversion of forests, grassland, and unused land to crop production and urban development. Urbanization had significant secondary ripple effects in terms of both indirect land use change and soil carbon loss. Some of the soil carbon loss may be irreversible, at least in the short run.Land use, propensity score-matching, road density, soil organic carbon, spatial panel,

Empirical Analysis of Land-use Change and Soil Carbon Sequestration Cost in China

This project examines the driving forces behind the land-use change and evaluates the effects of land-use transition on soil organic carbon density and sequestration cost in China. It contributes to the literature in three aspects. First, it applies a discrete choice method to model multiple land-use options with a unique set of high-quality data. Second, it conducts a comprehensive analysis of biophysical characteristics and changes in soil carbon storage caused by land-use change. Third, it examines the economic efficiency of alternative land use policies as instruments for carbon sequestration in China.carbon sequestration, land-use, soil organic carbon density, China, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use,

Mapping poverty in rural China: how much does the environment matter?

A recently developed small area estimation technique is used to geographically derive detailed estimates of consumption-based poverty and inequality in rural Shaanxi, China. These estimates may be helpful for targeting since there is wide variability in poverty rates within Shaanxi but low levels of inequality within most counties and townships. We also investigate whether including environmental variables in the equation used to predict consumption and poverty improves upon typical approaches that only use household survey and census data. Ignoring environmental variables appears likely to produce targeting errors

Expansion of China's Cities and Agricultural Production

In China, there is a growing debate on the role of cultivated land conversion on food security. This paper examines the changes of the area of cultivated land and its potential agricultural productivity in China using satellite images. We find that between 1986 and 2000, China recorded a net increase of cultivated land (+1.9%), which almost offset the decrease in average potential productivity, or bioproductivity (-2.2%). Therefore, we conclude that conversion of cultivated land did not hurt China's national food security. We also show that more recent change in cultivated area also should have little adverse effect on food security.Land Economics/Use,

Do roads lead to grassland degradation or restoration? A case study in Inner Mongolia, China

We use satellite remote sensing data of grassland cover in Inner Mongolia, China to test whether the existence of and the size of roads in 1995 is associated with the nature of the grassland in 2000 and/or if it affects the rate of change of the grassland between 1995 and 2000. The regression results show that the impact of roads on grassland cover depends on the nature of the resource. When the grassland is composed of relatively high quality grassland, roads lead to degradation, whereas when grassland resources are sparse, access to a road results in the restoration of the resource

Mapping poverty in rural China: How much does the environment matter?

In this paper, we apply a recently developed small-area estimation technique to derive geographically detailed estimates of consumption-based poverty and inequality in rural Shaanxi, China. We also investigate whether using environmental variables derived mainly from satellite remote sensing improves upon traditional approaches that only use household survey and census data. According to our results, ignoring environmental variables in statistical analyses that predict small-area poverty rates leads to targeting errors. In other words, using environmental variables both helps more accurately identify poor areas (so they should be able to receive more transfers of poor area funds) and identify non-poor areas (which would allow policy makers to reduce poverty funds in these better off areas and redirect them to poor areas). Using area-based targeting may be an efficient way to reach the poor since many counties and townships in rural Shaanxi have low levels of inequality, even though, on average, there is more within-group than between-group inequality. Using information on locations that are, in fact, receiving poverty assistance, our analysis also produces evidence that official poverty policy in Shaanxi targets particular areas which in reality are no poorer than other areas that do not get targeted

Dynamics of land use and land cover changes in China

A key contribution of environmental economics to policy making has been to provide empirical indicators of sustainable economic development. An economy is (weakly) sustainable if it saves more than the combined depreciation of its stocks of natural capital and produced capital. Thus, these indicators allow trade-offs where, for example, natural capital might be depreciated in order to build up other forms of capital, such as in the built environment or in the form of human capital. As an application of this general idea, this thesis focuses on the trade-offs between ecosystem services, provided by natural capital, and certain land use and land cover changes (LUCC) in China. With better understanding of these trade-offs, this thesis contributes to optimum management for sustaining ecosystem services and supporting socio-economic development. The three case study areas are Hebei, Qinghai and Shandong provinces. I study trade-offs between landscape diversity and crop production, between grassland quality and livestock production, and between net primary productivity (NPP, a measure of the energy that enters ecosystems) and urbanization. After reviewing trade-off analyses of ecosystem services for sustainable land-use management (Chapter 2), the case studies are presented, with two chapters on Hebei, one on Qinghai, and three on Shandong. These chapters have econometric models for monitoring and assessing LUCC-induced ecosystem service changes, to enable quantitative analysis of the mechanisms available for policy-oriented optimum land-use management. The case study areas each have different policy interventions that are designed to preserve or restore natural capital. For example, Hebei has ecological restoration programs, such as the Green for Grain program, that are implemented in an attempt to conserve landscape diversity. Qinghai province has policies of enhancing ecological restoration for grassland conservation, in order to improve livestock production. Shandong province has enforced a prime cropland preservation policy in order to ensure high cropland productivity. Collectively, the case studies add to the literature on the use of sustainable land-use management strategies, while helping to illustrate some of the trade-offs that are central to environmental economics. The results highlight issues created by conversion of cultivated land to urban use, in both Hebei and Shandong. In Qinghai province, grassland degradation, livestock production and farmers’ income interact and affect LUCC and changes in ecosystem services. Restorative interventions, such as nature reserves, seem to have a positive effect on NPP, as a measure of ecosystem productivity. On the other hand, in Shandong province there is relatively low land productivity, as measured by the NPP, in regions covered by built-up area. While this thesis does not calculate a value for the produced capital and human capital in built-up areas, the reduction in the value of natural capital as a result of urbanization highlights the potential trade-offs and the need for careful measurement to help whether China is on a sustainable development path. In summary, the research in this thesis examines various land-use practices and management regimes for conserving ecosystem services, and contributes to the literature on how management of land use change and land cover change can influence ecosystem services in rapidly urbanizing China

Which households are most distant from health centers in rural China? Evidence from a GIS network analysis

In this paper we have two objectives - one empirical; one methodological. Although China’s leaders are beginning to pay attention to health care in rural China, there are still concerns about access to health services. To examine this issue, we use measures of travel distances to health services to examine the nature of coverage in Shaanxi Province, our case study. The mean distance by road to the nearest health center is still more than 6 kilometers. When we use thresholds for access of 5 and 10 kilometers we find that more than 40 (15) percent of the rural population lives outside of these 5 (10) kilometer service areas for health centers. The nature of the access differs by geographical region and demographic composition of the household. The methodological contribution of our paper originates from a key feature of our analysis in which we use Geographic Information System (GIS) network analysis methods to measure traveling distance along the road network. We compare these measures to straight-line distance measures. Road distances (produced by network analysis) produce measures (using means) that are nearly twice as great as straight-line distances. Moreover, the errors in the measures (that is, the difference between road distances and straight-line distances) are not random. Therefore, traditional econometric methods of ameliorating the effects of measurement errors, such as instrument variables regression, will not produce consistent results when used with straight-line distances